Data Room · UT-02

Utah's 2nd District, by the numbers

Polling, issue priorities, and statewide context for Utah's 2nd Congressional District. Every figure is published with its source, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. New datasets are added as they become available.

Last updated

Note. Surveys commissioned by this campaign are labeled internal polling. Independent public polling is labeled separately and attributed to its pollster. Question wording, sample size, field dates, and margin of error are listed for every figure on this page.

District polling

September 2026 survey

A statistical tie

The 1.7-point gap is within the ±4-point margin of error.

Field dates
Sep 8–10, 2026
Sample
n = 762
Margin of error
±4%
Geography
UT-02

Internal poll · ballot test

If the election were held today

“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”

Blake Moore 32.4%, Peter Crosby 30.7%. The 1.7-point gap is within the ±4-point margin of error, and 33.6% are unsure or chose none of the above.

  • Peter Crosby
  • Other
  • Unsure
  • None of the above
  • Blake Moore

Bands show each candidate’s ±4-point margin of error.

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sep 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.

Internal poll · crosstabs

Ballot test, by party

“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”

Republicans favor Moore 45.7% to 18.0%, with 32.6% unsure or choosing none of the above. Unaffiliated voters favor Crosby 39.4% to 16.5%.

  • Peter Crosby
  • Other
  • Unsure
  • None of the above
  • Blake Moore

The release reports the ballot question by party for Republicans and unaffiliated voters only. Margins for party groups are calculated from each group’s sample size, at 95% confidence.

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sep 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.

Internal poll · issue priorities

Top concerns

“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”

Affordability (74.4%) and government accountability (69.8%) are the most-cited concerns, followed by the Great Salt Lake (43.6%).

Respondents could choose more than one concern, so shares add up to more than 100%.

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sep 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.

Internal poll · crosstabs

Top concerns, by party

“Please let us know your top concerns (multiple selections possible).”

Affordability and government accountability are the top two concerns in every party group.

Concern All voters n = 762 Democrats n = 75† Republicans n = 350 Unaffiliated n = 109 Other party n = 45†
Affordability 74.4% 73.3% 72.3% 79.8% 80.0%
Government accountability 69.8% 82.7% 66.3% 71.6% 75.6%
The Great Salt Lake 43.6% 60.0% 38.0% 51.4% 44.4%
Access to public lands 28.5% 40.0% 21.7% 39.5% 28.9%
DOGE cuts 24.0% 52.0% 19.4% 23.9% 22.2%
Other 13.0% 14.7% 10.9% 13.8% 24.4%

† Small sample: margins of error are about ±11 points for Democrats and ±15 points for other-party voters.

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 762 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Sep 8–10, 2026. ±4% margin of error.

Internal polls · August vs. September

Top issues, August to September

Affordability and government accountability remain the top two concerns. No change between the two surveys exceeds the margin of error.

Internal polls, Peter Crosby for Congress: Aug 3–17, 2026 (n = 565) and Sep 8–10, 2026 (n = 762). Shown in whole points, the precision of the August release.

August 2026 survey

57%

Dissatisfied with Rep. Moore

Somewhat or very dissatisfied

Field dates
Aug 3–17, 2026
Sample
n = 565
Margin of error
±4%
Geography
UT-02

70%

Unlikely to re-elect, or unsure

30% say they are likely to

33%

Republicans unlikely to back Moore

Includes those who are unsure

47%

Unaffiliated voters unlikely to back Moore

Unaffiliated and independent voters, 43% of the electorate. Excludes those who are unsure.

79%

Name affordability a top priority

Highest-ranked issue in the district

Internal poll · UT-02

Satisfaction with Rep. Moore

“How satisfied are you with our current representative (Rep. Blake Moore)?”

57% of district voters report dissatisfaction with the incumbent; 43% report satisfaction.

  • Very satisfied
  • Somewhat satisfied
  • Somewhat dissatisfied
  • Very dissatisfied
34% 9% 25% 32% 60%40%20%0%20%40%60%

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 565 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Aug 3–17, 2026. ±4% margin of error. This question had an 89% response rate.

Internal poll · UT-02

Likelihood to re-elect

“How likely are you to vote for Blake Moore this November?”

30% say they are likely to vote for the incumbent. 70% are unlikely to, or undecided.

  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely
  • Somewhat unlikely
  • Very unlikely
  • Unsure
17% 13% 11% 40% 60%40%20%0%20%40%60%
19% Unsure — shown separately, as it sits on neither side of the scale.

Internal poll, Peter Crosby for Congress. 565 randomized, registered voters across Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02), Aug 3–17, 2026. ±4% margin of error.

Statewide context

Independent public poll

Net job approval, August 2026

Every officeholder and institution measured was net negative — disapproval exceeded approval in each case.

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Gov. Spencer Cox Governor -8 Sen. Mike Lee U.S. Senate -7 Utah State Legislature State legislature -1 U.S. Congress Institution -30

Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics, August 2026. Statewide. Net = approve minus disapprove; the Congress figure is the published net.

Change since January

Gov. Cox's approval fell from 51% in January 2026 to 41% in August 2026, a change of -10 points.

Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics, August 2026. Statewide.

On the ground

Campaign-reported operational counts — organizing activity, not survey results. Town halls as of September 2026; volunteers and funds raised as of the September 14 release; donors as of the August release.

35+

Town halls

In person and virtual, across UT-02 since launch

400+

Registered volunteers

Signed up since launch

550+

Individual donors

No corporate PAC money accepted

$100K+

Raised

From small-dollar and individual donors, over 95% in Utah

Methodology

Campaign internal poll · September

Sponsor
Peter Crosby for Congress (internal)
Sample
762 randomized, registered voters
Geography
Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02)
Field dates
Sep 8–10, 2026
Margin of error
±4 percentage points
Partisanship
Sponsored by this campaign — an interested party
Read the full release →

Campaign internal poll · August

Sponsor
Peter Crosby for Congress (internal)
Sample
565 randomized, registered voters
Geography
Davis, Weber, Box Elder, Cache & Rich Counties (UT-02)
Field dates
Aug 3–17, 2026
Margin of error
±4 percentage points
Partisanship
Sponsored by this campaign — an interested party
Read the full release →

Statewide public poll

Pollster
Deseret News / Hinckley Institute of Politics
Geography
Statewide (Utah)
Field period
August 2026
Partisanship
Independent — not affiliated with any campaign
Read the poll ↗

What is not modeled here

This page reports only real, attributable figures — the campaign’s own polling and published public polls — never modeled or estimated ones. The following are not represented:

  • Ballot-test trend. The Crosby-versus-Moore question has been asked in one survey so far, so it cannot yet show change over time.
  • Forecast or win probability. No predictive model is applied. A forecast would require repeated independent polling of the district.
  • County-level breakouts. The sample spans five counties but was not published disaggregated; n = 762 is too small for reliable subgroup estimates.